Research Lab
+EV opportunities, observation history and simulated performance from the fair-value research pipeline. The Python backend owns every quantitative value — fair probability, edge, expected return, settlement and P&L — and this dashboard presents them read-only. Nothing here places a wager.
4
Currently qualifying +EV observations in the research store.
-4.4%
Mean backend EV across the listed opportunities (net per $1 payout).
+$54.60
Across 4 settled paper trades.
1
Demo trades awaiting settlement; no real money is at risk.
4 of 4 shown
Expected return is the backend's net-per-$1-payout estimate after fees and allowances. A row can show a positive raw edge and still carry a negative expected return once fees, rounding and allowances are applied — that is the backend's semantics, not a display error, so cost-negative rows are shown by default.
| Event | Market | Selection | Market price | Fair prob. | Edge | Expected return | Last detected | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demo Away 6 at Demo Home 6 MLB · Oct 16, 7:05 PM ET | Moneyline kalshi-fair-value vkalshi-baseline-v2 | Demo Home 6 | 42.0% | 45.0% | +3.0 pts | -3.5% | Sep 18, 2:00 AM ET 12s old | Active | |
Demo Away 3 at Demo Home 3 MLB · Oct 13, 7:05 PM ET | Moneyline kalshi-fair-value vkalshi-baseline-v2 | Demo Home 3 | 70.0% | 73.0% | +3.0 pts | -3.5% | Sep 17, 11:00 PM ET 12s old | Active | |
Demo Away 1 at Demo Home 1 MLB · Oct 11, 7:05 PM ET | Moneyline kalshi-fair-value vkalshi-baseline-v2 | Demo Home 1 | 54.0% | 56.0% | +2.0 pts | -4.5% | Sep 17, 9:04 PM ET 12s old | Active | |
Demo Away 4 at Demo Home 4 MLB · Oct 14, 7:05 PM ET | Moneyline kalshi-fair-value vkalshi-baseline-v2 | Demo Home 4 | 20.0% | 20.5% | +0.5 pts | -6.0% | Sep 18, 12:00 AM ET 12s old | Active | |
Data source
This section is running on deterministic synthetic fixtures that mirror the backend contract exactly. No quantitative value here is live or tradeable.